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Posted on | May 28, 2013 | Comments Off on Cialis Neutropenia Leukopenia

Please Note: An earlier version of this post attributed the blog post discussed below to David Lowery. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Subsequently, cialis neutropenia leukopenia I have learned that Lowery is not the author of this post. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia I have revised this piece to remove references to David Lowery, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and I sincerely apologize to Mr. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Lowery for any misunderstanding.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia A recent post on the Trichordist quoted data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) indicating that the number of working musicians has decreased by 45% since 2002. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia It included the following graphic to illustrate this point:

The Trichordist’s statistics seemed shocking. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Could they really be right?

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia An employment drop of 45% in a ten year period is pretty extreme, cialis neutropenia leukopenia even given the current state of the music business. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Therefore, cialis neutropenia leukopenia I thought it might be worth a visit to the BLS website, cialis neutropenia leukopenia to dig a little deeper into the Trichordist’s numbers. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Fortunately, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the Trichordist was kind enough to cite its sources in the image above. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Unfortunately, cialis neutropenia leukopenia it did not include hot links to these sources in its blog post, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and I’m kind of lazy. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So rather than hand-typing those links into the brower, cialis neutropenia leukopenia  I first did a web search on “BLS musicians” to see if that would take me to the right place. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia I ended up at a page titled “Occupational Outlook Handbook” (http://www.bls.gov/ooh/entertainment-and-sports/musicians-and-singers.htm).

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia This page did not contain the data that the Trichordist used to make the chart above, cialis neutropenia leukopenia but it did indicate the following:

  • that there were 176, cialis neutropenia leukopenia200 jobs for musicians and singers in 2010.
  • that the number of musician and singer jobs was expected to grow 10% by the year 2020.

At this, cialis neutropenia leukopenia point, cialis neutropenia leukopenia I was getting confused. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Why were these numbers different than the Trichordist’s?

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Not only were the numbers from the “Occupational Outlook Handbook” completely different (and significantly larger) than the Trichordist’s numbers, cialis neutropenia leukopenia they also indicated job growth over the next 10 years, cialis neutropenia leukopenia not job shrinkage (which is what the Trichordist had asserted was happening). Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So I bit the bullet and hand-typed in the links from the Trichordist’s chart above, cialis neutropenia leukopenia which are as follows:

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag711.htm#about;

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia http://www.bls.gov/oes/2003/may/oes272042.htm

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia When I got to those pages, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the numbers were the same as those cited by the Trichordist above. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia But I was still left wondering why the BLS website had more than one set of musician employment numbers.

It turns out that the Trichordist’s numbers and the Occupational Handbook numbers were drawn from different surveys that used different methodologies.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The 176, cialis neutropenia leukopenia200 figure comes from the Industry-Occupation Matrix Data, cialis neutropenia leukopenia by occupation (the “Matrix”). Cialis neutropenia leukopenia You can find that here. The Matrix data is further broken down by industry, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and you can download the raw data for an industry in .xls spreadsheet format. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia (The raw data for musicians and singers is available here: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ep/ind-occ.matrix/occxls/occ27-2041.xls.)

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The BLS has this to say about where the Matrix numbers came from. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The methodology of the Matrix is explained here. This paragraph from that discussion seems particularly instructive (especially the last sentence):

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Base-year employment data for wage and salary workers, cialis neutropenia leukopenia self-employed workers, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and unpaid family workers come from a variety of sources, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and measure total employment as a count of jobs, cialis neutropenia leukopenia not a count of individual workers. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia This concept is different from that used by another measure familiar to many readers, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the Current Population Survey’s total employment as a count of the number of workers. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The Matrix’s total employment concept is also different from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) total employment measure. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Although the CES measure is also a count of jobs, cialis neutropenia leukopenia it covers nonfarm payroll jobs, cialis neutropenia leukopenia whereas the Matrix includes all jobs.

So where do the Trichordist’s Numbers come from and how do they relate to the numbers from the Matrix?

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The numbers from the Trichordist’s chart were drawn from the Occupational Employment Statistics program (OES) (http://www.bls.gov/oes/), cialis neutropenia leukopenia a data source that seems to share some methodological similarities with the CES (which was referenced in the paragraph above).

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The OES FAQ explains the methodology underlying the OES. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia For our purposes, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the most salient information is as follows:

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia “Employees” are all part-time and full-time workers who are paid a wage or salary. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The survey does not cover the self-employed, cialis neutropenia leukopenia owners and partners in unincorporated firms, cialis neutropenia leukopenia household workers, cialis neutropenia leukopenia or unpaid family workers.

It appears that the numbers used in the Trichordist’s chart exclude both self-employed workers and owners of unincorporated firms (i.e., cialis neutropenia leukopenia the partners in a partnership or the members of an LLC).

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia It’s not trivial to omit self-employed workers and owners of incorporated firms. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Of the total musician and singer jobs in 2010, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the data from the spreadsheet I linked to above indicates that 75, cialis neutropenia leukopenia000 (42%) of those jobs stemmed from self-employment. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia I don’t know about you, cialis neutropenia leukopenia but it definitely makes intuitive sense to me that this percentage would be pretty high, cialis neutropenia leukopenia as lots of musicians are self-employed/sole proprietors or operating in a partnership or LLC (i.e., cialis neutropenia leukopenia an unincorporated association).

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Update: In a Facebook comment thread on this blog post, cialis neutropenia leukopenia I gave some more concrete examples about common situations for working musicians and how they are captured by the BLS data I looked at. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia One of the commenters suggested that it would be useful to have it in the main blog post as well. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So I’m adding it here.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia (a) Let’s say we have a band. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia They make their entire living from music. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The core group is two people. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia They are organized as a member-managed, cialis neutropenia leukopenia LLC with two members. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The LLC is taxed as a partnership. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia They don’t receive a salary. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia They get their money in the form of distributions from the LLC. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia This money flows through to each of their 1040s on a k-1 and is treated as self-employment income.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Let’s say that two other musicians also regularly play in this band (perhaps they are the drummer and bass player), cialis neutropenia leukopenia but they are not members of the LLC (i.e., cialis neutropenia leukopenia they don’t hold equity in the company). Cialis neutropenia leukopenia These musicians may also pick up work playing gigs with other people when the main band isn’t active. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Both in the context of their main band and on any other jobs they do, cialis neutropenia leukopenia these musicians get paid as 1099 contractors. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So all their income in a year is also from self-employment.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia None of these musicians are counted in the OES data the Trichordist has cited, cialis neutropenia leukopenia but these musicians are apparently counted in the Matrix data. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The scenario above is a very real scenario, cialis neutropenia leukopenia especially for the so-called middle class of musicians (i.e., cialis neutropenia leukopenia people who are making enough money from playing music to subsist without another job). Cialis neutropenia leukopenia As the Matrix data shows, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the median income of the musicians in their survey was around $22/hr. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia That works out to a yearly gross income of around $42k (40 hours a week for 48 weeks a year). Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So half the musicians in the Matrix data made more than that and half made less. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia I suspect that a lot of full-time musicians in the $20k-$40k range fit the scenario I’ve spelled out above (either co-owner of a partnership or LLC or a sole proprietor receiving living mostly from 1099 contractor income).

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia (b) Now, cialis neutropenia leukopenia let’s think about a more successful band. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia I don’t know anything about the particulars of Wilco, cialis neutropenia leukopenia but I get the sense that Jeff Tweedy is the only equity holder in Wilco, cialis neutropenia leukopenia Inc. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia (or Wilco, cialis neutropenia leukopenia LLC). Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So all the other guys are likely hired guns from a legal and financial standpoint.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia In a situation like that, cialis neutropenia leukopenia where a band is successful and has more predictable cash-flow, cialis neutropenia leukopenia there’s a much better chance that these hired guns won’t be 1099 contractors anymore. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Instead, cialis neutropenia leukopenia they will be salaried employees of Wilco, cialis neutropenia leukopenia Inc., cialis neutropenia leukopenia benefits will be paid, cialis neutropenia leukopenia exclusivity may be required, cialis neutropenia leukopenia etc.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Musicians in the Wilco situation would likely be counted in the OES numbers that the Trichordist cited. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia And to the extent that the OES numbers say that these kinds of musician jobs have shrunk significantly since 2002, cialis neutropenia leukopenia that’s no small thing. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia For those kinds of jobs are good jobs, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and we should all probably be fighting for a world in which there are more jobs like that for musicians. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia But that’s a different issue than the one the Trichordist has put on the table (i.e., cialis neutropenia leukopenia the changing character of musician jobs vs. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia a change in the absolute number of musician jobs).

Where does that leave us?

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia I’d love to get a more nuanced picture of things than I have now. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Even with the additional info from the Matrix, cialis neutropenia leukopenia a lot of important questions remain unanswered. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia But based on the info I found on the BLS website, cialis neutropenia leukopenia I will say this: If the goal is to understand how many working musicians and singers there are over time, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the job numbers used must include self-employed workers; otherwise, cialis neutropenia leukopenia they aren’t suitable to that task. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia If we had, cialis neutropenia leukopenia say, cialis neutropenia leukopenia Matrix data from 2000 that could be compared to the 2010 Matrix data, cialis neutropenia leukopenia maybe we would find that the trends in that data are the same as the trends in the OES data that the Trichordist used for its chart.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia But absent that sort of data, cialis neutropenia leukopenia it seems like the broadest claim one can make based on the OES data is that payroll-based jobs for musicians have shrunk since 2002. However, cialis neutropenia leukopenia once we narrow things down to that claim, cialis neutropenia leukopenia it significantly muddies the causal link that the Trichordist is trying to make between the rise of digitial music and fall of musician jobs.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia The loss of a payroll job doesn’t necessarily mean that the person in question was unable to find a nonpayroll job as a musician. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Indeed, cialis neutropenia leukopenia a lost payroll job might well be replaced by a new non-payroll job in the economy. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Therefore, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the absolute number of musician jobs may not have shrunk at all. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Instead, cialis neutropenia leukopenia it may be that the character of musician jobs has shifted.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Having said that, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the loss of payroll-based musician jobs may still be significant. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia As in other industries, cialis neutropenia leukopenia the loss of such a job can mean that a musician is exchanging a job with benefits, cialis neutropenia leukopenia etc. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia for an independent contractor situation, cialis neutropenia leukopenia where pay and benefits are not as good. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia So there may well be economic losses involved. Cialis neutropenia leukopenia But it seems highly speculative to draw conclusions about the nature or cause of these sorts of economic losses from the BLS data cited in the Trichordist’s blog post.

Cialis neutropenia leukopenia Perhaps the Trichordist will dig further into this question, cialis neutropenia leukopenia find more data, cialis neutropenia leukopenia and then share what it has learned with the rest of us.

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